WASHINGTON, July 13 -
Gas price forecast 2026: EIA STEO and GasBuddy outlook
EIA STEO projects a 2026 US regular gasoline average around $3.10/gal early-year stepping down to about $2.95 by Q4 as OPEC+ supply growth and a slow demand backdrop coincide. GasBuddy's 2026 outlook puts the calendar-year average at $3.87/gal - the fourth straight annual decline. [EIA · 13 Jul 2026] [GB · 13 Jul 2026]
Key swing factors
- OPEC+ production decisions through 2026.
- Permian Basin growth and US crude exports.
- Refinery closures (PADD 5 capacity attrition continues).
- Atlantic hurricane season (typical pump impact: 5-15 cents on a major Gulf landfall).
Summer driving season peak
Recent years have peaked between mid-May and early July. 2026 looks similar; this June marks the seasonal high so far.