Gas price forecast: the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook for 2026 and 2027
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects a US regular gasoline retail average of $3.91 per gallon for 2026 and $3.56 for 2027, including taxes. The latest weekly survey reading is $4.27, week of October 26, 2026. A full-year projection can sit below the current week when prices ran under it earlier in the year. The Outlook is a separate EIA product from the weekly survey and is revised every month, so read it as a projection rather than an observation. [EIA · 26 Oct 2026]
The projected quarterly path
| Quarter | Projected US average ($/gal) |
|---|---|
| 2026-Q1 | $3.13 |
| 2026-Q2 | $4.21 |
| 2026-Q3 | $4.11 |
| 2026-Q4 | $4.15 |
| 2027-Q1 | $3.71 |
| 2027-Q2 | $3.76 |
| 2027-Q3 | $3.56 |
| 2027-Q4 | $3.24 |
The projected path peaks at $4.21 in 2026-Q2 and troughs at $3.13 in 2026-Q1.
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, series MGRARUS. EIA publishes these in cents per gallon; converted to dollars per gallon here. Public domain.
Where the year stands so far
The mean of the 43 EIA weekly observations through 2026-10-26 is $3.868 per gallon. That is an observed year-to-date mean of the weekly survey, not the Outlook projection above and not an EIA annual figure, which the agency publishes only once the year closes.
Key swing factors
- OPEC+ production decisions.
- Permian Basin growth and US crude exports.
- Refinery closures, with PADD 5 capacity attrition continuing.
- Atlantic hurricane season. A major Gulf landfall typically moves the national average by 5 to 15 cents for a few weeks.
Summer driving season peak
Recent years have peaked between mid-May and early July. The quarterly projection above shows where EIA expects the seasonal high to sit, which is the honest version of a question this page used to answer with a hand-typed number.